# Ashley Miller has three major routes to commute to work: take RiverView Street the entire way,…

Ashley Miller has three major routes to commute to work: take
RiverView Street the entire way, take several back streets, or use
the expressway. The traffic patterns are pretty complex. Under good
conditions, RiverView Street is the fastest route; however, when it
is congested, one of the other routes is usually preferable. Over
the past two months, Ashley has tried each route several times
under different traffic conditions. Her travel time to work (in
minutes) is summarized in the following table. STATES OF NATURE
DECISION ALTERNATIVES NO TRAFFIC CONGESTION (minutes) MILD TRAFFIC
CONGESTION (minutes) SEVERE TRAFFIC CONGESTION (minutes)
RiverView Street 15 NO TRAFFIC CONGESTION (minutes) 30 MILD
TRAFFIC CONGESTION (minutes) 45 SEVERE TRAFFIC CONGESTION
(minutes)
Back roads 20 NO TRAFFIC CONGESTION (minutes) 25 MILD TRAFFIC
CONGESTION (minutes) 35 SEVERE TRAFFIC CONGESTION (minutes)
Expressway 30 NO TRAFFIC CONGESTION (minutes) 30 MILD TRAFFIC
CONGESTION (minutes) 30 SEVERE TRAFFIC CONGESTION (minutes)
1. If nothing is known about the demand probabilities, a. Based
on Conservative Approach, which route should Ashley choose to
commute to work? b. Using the Minimax Regret Approach, create the
Opportunity Loss/Regret Table. What route should Ashley take if she
wants to minimize average drive time? 2. Suppose the probabilities
for No Traffic Congestion, Mild Traffic Congestion, and Severe
Traffic Congestion are 50%, 33%, and 17% respectively, c. Construct
a Decision Tree (draw it neatly by using MS Word/MS Excel Drawing
Tool OR if you are drawing it by hand, please a ruler) and solve it
using Expected Value Approach. What is the recommended decision
alternative? d. Calculate the Expected Value of the Perfect
Information (EVPI)?